SCC - Week 7 (Playoffs? Playoffs??)

In a sick, convoluted way, I am actually happy the CIAC football playoff system is as complicated as it is. I consider myself a pretty intelligent person, I'm good with numbers, and I am stupid enough to spend an inordinate amount of time crunching said numbers when I should be helping the world in some other fashion.
Maybe I should get a job with the government or something, I don't mind running through scenarios that seem to have little or no chance of happening. The frustrating thing, as it is for everyone, is that you can't predict the future (anyone take a look at my picks lately? If not, don't look). We may think we know what's going to happen, but the exciting, fun part about doing this stuff, is that we don't really know. So take what you are about to read with a grain of salt, and understand that it is just my best guess> But I can promise you one thing and one thing, only. I promise I will be more accurate than the weather predictors have been lately.
To simplify, we're going to eliminate the four divisions below Class L for SCC purposes. North Haven, at 4-3, actually has an outside shot in MM, but they aren't going to get many points from their final three games, and they would need St. Paul and East Lyme to lose twice each and then hope to outpoint them. Stranger things have happened, but we'll have time to get to them if they do.
So that leaves us with four teams: Xavier, Cheshire, and Hamden in Class LL, and Notre Dame in Class L.
Class L is more straightforward, so let's start there. It is almost assured that the top two teams, Masuk and Pomperaug, will finish undefeated. They are in the same conference (South-West), but don't play each other, which SCC teams could gripe about if they didn't have to look at themselves in the mirror. That gives you half the field and almost assures that Notre Dame will be on the road if they do get into the playoffs. Third is Conard, also undefeated, and although they don't have the pedigree of some other teams we'll talk about, they've allowed 13 points all season, so I'm thinking they also finish unbeaten, which gives us one spot left.
Notre Dame and Simsbury are the two favorites for that spot, Simsbury currently holding a 20-point lead over the Green Knights, but if both teams win out, ND's remaining opponents will give them 130 points, while Simsbury will only get 100. Looking at the schedules the rest of the way, my best guess is that Notre Dame edges Simsbury if both win out, which may also be important if both lose one more. Simsbury takes on unbeaten Glastonbury on Nov. 21, while the most anticipated Green Bowl in some time kicks off five days later. No other Class L team looks likely to finish with two losses and challenge for that fourth spot. If Windsor runs the table, they might have enough points, but Bloomfield lurks the day before Thanksgiving. I don't think Fitch can get enough points, even if they keep winning.
Bottom line: there is a scenario that could have Notre Dame clinching a berth in the playoffs before Thanksgiving, which would be a shame. For everyone except ND supporters, of course. And if the Knights win out, it's hard to find a way that they won't be the fourth seed in Class L.
OK, the easy work is done. On to Class LL, where a ridiculous nine teams still have zero or one loss with three games to go. Obviously, five of those teams will not be competing in the postseason. The three SCC teams: Xavier, Cheshire, and Hamden stand third to fifth (in that order). None of the three play each other (in fact, the only matchup between any of the nine is Staples-Greenwich on Thanksgiving), which makes this very complicated.
I will reiterate, these are my projections, and it is impossible to try to figure in every single scenario (but that doesn't mean I can't try).
Glastonbury is playing very well, and I think they can go unbeaten (although watch out for New Britain this week), so we'll give them one spot. Staples is undefeated, but has Trumbull and Greenwich left, and their starting quarterback is out for the season. Greenwich seems to have their number, but also has New Canaan and St. Joseph, with a combined one loss still left. Bridgeport Central still has New Canaan remaining, so we're taking them out of the equation. Ridgefield - whom Wilbur Cross could have taken care of for us - has a favorable schedule if they can beat Trumbull on Friday, but could be left wonting for points. Newtown has Masuk left on the night before Thanksgiving, with everyone in LL rooting for Casey Cochran and the Panthers.
As for the SCC teams, with West Haven as hot as they are, it's hard to see the Blue Devils losing to both Cheshire and Xavier, and they could really throw a monkey wrench into the proceedings by beating both of them. For our purposes, let's say they knock off one of them. Hamden-ND is a toss-up to end all toss-ups.
That leaves us with Glastonbury in, Staples, Xavier-Cheshire with one loss. If Hamden wins, that might make it easy for us, but if they don't, or a few upsets happen, it gets very, very complicated.
But the bottom line: unless we get a bunch of upsets and unexpected results (namely Greenwich running the table), it's hard to see a one-loss team from the SCC not getting into the postseason. That doesn't mean it can't happen, but it's not worth worrying about for another couple of weeks.
Just like the weather.
EXTRA POINTS: It's unfortunate that the game spotlighted on WCTX's (Channel 9) Game of the Week last Saturday was Hamden-Fairfield Prep. The Jesuits are suffering through their worst season, possibly ever, certainly since they've been in the SCC, and Hamden led 36-0 after one quarter, spending the rest of the night trying to figure out ways not to win by more than 50 points. Not to belabor points made in past years, but just watching on TV, it was quite painful to watch the second half. Obviously, the reason why the rule was put in is because coaches couldn't police themselves with 88-0 scores and the like, and I'm all for investigating running up the score if the situation warrants. But to set an abitrary score just makes it difficult for everyone involved. If you really don't want them to score more than 50, just call the game at that point, it would make me feel better ... On a related note, East Haven fell to Trinity Catholic 43-7 in Stamford in a game that was out of hand early, leading Trinity coach Peter Stokes, who team won only its second game all year to tell the Stamford Advocate, "The 50-point rule is ridiculous. It was put in because of Jack Cochran, and he's not coaching now so the rule should be eliminated. Coaches aren't focusing on the game but on the rule. No coach I know wants to embarrass another coach." ... You wonder what would have been had North Haven found a way to beat Branford in the season opener. The Indians are currently probably the hottest team in Division II, and led Cheshire 17-14 at halftime, before the Rams' defense stiffened and Cheshire prevailed 27-17. But North Haven also played Hand very tough, and would likely be in the playoffs at 8-2, but will have to settle for being Division II "champions" if they can win their last three games ... There isn't much room in the Surf Club locker rooms, which probably made the halftime talk from Tom Marcucci and his staff even more interesting. Somehow, the prolific Green Knights were shutout in the first half by Hand and trailed 14-0, but they came out for the third quarter a different team, scoring 21 straight points in the third quarter, and winning fairly comfortably 28-14. The first three scores were actually through the air from quarterback Sean Goldrich, a weapon ND hasn't had to use too much this season. A lesson learned for the Knights, or a warning sign? The Foran they play Friday will likely not be the intimidated squad they saw a year ago ... Xavier made quick work of Amity, the most significant thing for me in that game was noticing that Amity changed to bright gold uniforms this season. Very bright ... We don't talk much about the Division II teams, but full credit to teams like Foran, Lyman Hall, Guilford, and Branford for giving it a go every week this season. As they did last year, Foran surprisingly (at least to me) blew out Sheehan to move to 5-2 on the season. Lyman Hall, long ago written off, beat Law easily to win for the second straight week. And Guilford and Branford, fighting through adversity (Guilford unable to practice for a week because of the H1N1 virus and Branford losing quarterback Andrew Luzzi for the campaign with an injury), put together a heck of a game Friday night, with the Hornets racing to a 21-0 lead at the half, but the Indians came all the way back to tie it at 21-21 before Kyle Nolan hit Bryan Levchuk for the winning touchdown with seconds remaining for a 27-21 victory. Guilford is 1-5, but hasn't stopped battling ... Speaking of battling, with the playoff pressure now off, Shelton is rolling. It wasn't terribly surprising that the Gaels beat Hillhouse, but it was a little jarring that they beat them 42-8, and that it was 35-6 at the half. Sadly for them, the Gaels don't have another "big game" left. They'll have to make due against Amity and Hand, both pretty good competition, but not playoff teams ... Our Lou Holtz award goes to Xavier coach Sean Marinan, commenting on this week's game against Fairfield Prep at Palmer Field, "Very dangerous. They are playing for pride. They don't have anything to lose. They are relaxed and will take chances. This could be a big trap game for us." The Jesuits' closest game of the year is 21 points, and their closest Division I margin of defeat is 29 points. I think they'll be OK.
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PLAYER OF THE WEEK
Tucker Schumitz, Foran - Schumitz ran for 263 yards and three touchdowns as the Lions continued to roll, beating Sheehan 28-7 last Friday night in Wallingford. Included in those scores were an 85 and 79-yard scoring run. It marked the second straight year, a Foran runner put up big numbers against the Titans, last year it was Tyler Hames going for more than 300 total yards in a lopsided Foran win.

GAME OF THE WEEK
Cheshire at West Haven, Friday, 7 p.m. - I think this breaks the unofficial record for most times in the Game of the Week for the Rams, but their playoff lives are probably on the line at Ken Strong Stadium. This has been a great rivalry in the past, in recent years, it's been the Rams tring to play spoiler to the Blue Devils, but this year the roles are reversed. On current form, you;d have to think that the Westies are ready to spring an "upset", but I thought the same thing in Shelton earlier this season and Cheshire rolled to victory.

INSIDE THE NUMBERS
240
Number of points Shelton has scored this season, good enough for second best in the SCC, with 42 of them coming last Friday against Hillhouse. Unfortunately for the Gaels, they have also allowed 173 points this season, the most of anyone in Division I not named Fairfield Prep, which finds them at 4-3 with three games remaining.
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POWER RANKINGS
1) Notre Dame (6-1; Last Week 1) – Sleepwalking would be a kind ascertation of their first half.
2) Xavier (6-1; LW 2) – Seem to be rolling, but the date with West Haven looms on the schedule.
3) Hamden (6-1; LW 3) – Watching Dragons try to not score was just painful television all around.
4) Cheshire (6-1; LW 4) – Not exactly playing their best ball of the year, saving it for West Haven?
5) Shelton (4-3; LW 5) – As hot as anyone in the conference, but no one above them left to play.
6) West Haven (4-3; LW 6) – Will have to settle for role of spoiler, but what a spoiler they can be.
7) Hand (3-4; LW 7) – Another close call for Tigers, seems like they've had plenty lately.
8) North Haven (4-3; LW 9) - Hopes of playoffs are flickering, but they are still there. Kind of.
9) Amity (2-4; LW 8) – Have a chance to spoil like West Haven does, but some tough ones left.
10) Wilbur Cross (3-4; LW 10) – Governors are in free fall, and no rest available for the weary.
11) Foran (5-2; LW 13) - Is it possible this year's Lions might be a little better than last year's?
12) Lyman Hall (3-4; LW 14) - They kept saying they were close to breaking out. Might have been right.
13) Hillhouse (3-4; LW 11) - So, I guess there is still a gap between D-I and D-II. Good to know.
14) Sheehan (3-4; LW 12) - Titans are one of the toughest teams to figure out year in and year out.
15) Branford (4-3; LW 15) - Wasn't the prettiest of victories, but still very good for team pysche.
16) Jonathan Law (3-4; LW 16) - Two bad games in a row, we'll see what kind of pride they have now.
17) Guilford (1-5; LW 17) - Played a decent game, have battled hard with a very young squad this year.
18) Fairfield Prep (0-7; LW 18) - I don't even think the Jesuits wanted that game to be on TV last week.
19) East Haven (0-7; LW 19) - North Haven, Guilford, and Branford left to try to get that elusive win.